Sports Betting : Football Parlay Bets

Each season a herd of sports bettors flock to sports books to bet on college and pro football. Casinos do their best to promote the playing of parlay cards—a money source for them. Many bettors, lured by the thought of winning many times their wager, buy into this marketing and begin to lose money. However, is there such a thing as a good parlay bet? Aside from difficulty, why are parlay bets a poor choice? Are you being tricked?

One of the lures of parlay bets is the ability to wrap multiple sports plays into one bet and get larger payouts. Typically a sports book will pay 11 to 1 for a four-team parlay bet on football. To the average bettor, this seems great. Drop a 10 spot on the parlay and walk home, if you win, with $110 in winnings. If you must bet a parlay, the best one to play is the three-team parlay. Yes, a two-team parlay is easier to hit, but since it is only two teams—and the payout for the parlay is minimal—you should simply bet each game straight up.

As you go up the ladder with parlays, not only does the probability of winning lessen, but the payout odds get worse too. Let’s look at three examples, a three-team parlay bet, a five-team parlay bet and an eight-team parlay bet.

Three-Team Parlay: The payout is normally 6 to 1. There are eight possible winning combinations, so you lose one possible combination in the odds—12.5% loss in value.

Five-Team Parlay: The payout is normally 20 to 1. There are 32 possible winning combinations, so you lose eleven possible combinations in the odds—35% loss in value.

Eight-Team Parlay: The payout is normally 150 to 1. There are 256 possible winning combinations, so you lose 105 possible combinations in the odds—41% loss in value.

As you can see, the value keeps decreasing with the more sports plays you add to your parlay. Would you place a bet for $100 if you had 255 ways to lose and the payout value is equivalent to $59? As the number of bets on your parlay increase, you are not just lowering your probability of winning; you are basically getting ripped off in the payout if you do win.

Having looked at this, one can come to the logical conclusion that the three-team parlay is the best one to play. Even a blind sports bettor has a 12.5% chance to win and the payout almost equals the risk. The next time you go to play a parlay, think a little bit about the value of the bet instead of being awestruck by the payout.