NFL Week 17 Betting

I sat down tonight to decide what games I like this week in the NFL. Many of the games present a problem—knowing just who will play and who won’t. However, the lines show this problem as well, so it could be a good week to rake in some wins. Here’s how I see some of the action.

Game One: New York Giants (-9) at Oakland

The Giants need a win to lock up their division and the Raiders are just hoping to get things on track and end the season on a high note. The offense of the Raiders is disgusting, but the Giants are prone to struggle on the road. Kerry Collins is expected to start for the Raiders—they scored 3 points in their last game against Denver. While the Raiders could pose enough threat to stay within 9 points, the probability of that happening is slim. You make the call.

Game Two: Washington (-7) at Philadelphia

The Redskins needs a win in Philly to cement a playoff birth. It is the NFC east and this game has the potential to be a hard fought battle. It is unsure who will start at QB for the skins, but either way, their offense is better than Philly’s. I like the Redskins to march down to Philly and take the game. While the Eagles can play for pride and a shot to hurt the Redskins, that simply won’t be enough. The line may potentially move up and that’s a problem. I tend to pull off plays when they go just above a score (IE 3.5 and 7.5). I have seen too many plays go down in flames this way.

Game Three: Houston (-1.5) at San Francisco

Ok, before you click your back button, let me explain this one. This game has an interesting twist to it. Houston needs to lose to retain the number one pick. Conspiracy theories aside, what do you think is more valuable to this franchise and its fans—getting the number one pick next year or winning a meaningless game, which would be their third? I submit to you that securing the number one pick trumps everything else. That does not mean the Texans will come out and throw the game, but they just might. It could become a game of who can play worse. 49er QB, Alex Smith, would love to have a TD this year and this game is his last shot. The 49ers have been playing improved football and could very well hand it to Houston.

I was surprised to see Houston favored in this one. I was certain that the 49ers would be three point favorites. A side note, the 49ers have little reason to throw the game. If they did and the other 3-12 teams lose, by virtue of tiebreakers, the 49ers would pick fifth. If the 49ers win, they would possible pick fifth still. However, if the Texans win, they would pick fourth—losing 3 valuable draft places. The potential gap between first and fourth this coming year is astronomical. It is only Thursday, but I am leaning towards the 49ers in this one.

It is a little difficult to find value this week. There are many plays that simply have too many unknowns in them to play, such as the Chargers being favored by 10 over Denver. While Denver has nothing to play for, neither do the Chargers—except pride. This game has too much “gamble” in it. The basic formula in making the lines this week was this: If a team needs to win, favor them by a bunch. Look up and down the line and you will see this holds true.