Roulette : Progression Strategies
I have played my share of Roulette—was even a dealer in a casino. It never ceased to amaze me how many progression strategies for Roulette came out. In some of the local casinos, here in Las Vegas, you could find someone with a notepad playing Roulette any time of day. So, are these progression systems worthwhile? If not, can they be played effectively in a modified form? These are the issues I will tackle today.
Simple Progression System
A simple progression system doubles the last losing bet until a bet is won. They are almost always done on even pay bets such as odd or even, red or black and so forth. For example: 1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128 and so on. As you can see, by bet number eight, you are wagering 128 units to win one unit. To perform this simple 8-scale progression, you would need 255 units—and of course zero streaks of 9.
Let’s back up for one moment. In Roulette, there are 38 possible outcomes (1-36, 0 and 00). Whether you are betting odd/even or red/black, you have a probability of 47% (.474) that your bet will win. It would seem like this system is a sure fire way to get rich, but hold the phone. Have you ever flipped a coin? Did it always come out heads, tails, heads, tails and so on? Of course it didn’t. There is always a chance that you will lose multiple times in a row. So what’s the probability of losing a bet multiple times in progression?
One Time: 53%
Two Times: 28%
Three Times: 15%
Four Times: 8%
Five Times: 4%
Six Times: 2%
Seven Times: 1%
Eight Times: .006%
Nine Times: .003%
So what’s this mean? Most of the time you will be on the front of your progression scale, however if you where to play 100 spins, you would be at your seventh progression once, which means you would be wagering 64 units to win one. If you continue playing, by your 167th spin, you would have hit your 8th and final level—128 units to win one unit. Finally, after a long session, you play your 333rd spin and lose it all.
This is assuming that the numbers work out. However, you could very well walk up to play and 20 spins in—it’s over. For the numbers to hold true, you would have to play an enormous number of spins. If you had a large enough bankroll and played enough for mathematics to hold true, each “series†you would lose 255 units, but win 333 units—a profit of 78 units.
How long would 33 spins take in a casino? That’s a real good question. It all depends on the dealer. Some dealers (and houses) are trained to keep the game rolling along. You might have a spin every minute. Others take their time, and if busy, it could be 5 minutes between spins. Let’s compromise and assume a spin delay of two minutes. That equates to roughly eleven hours per cycle, which further equates to 7 units per hour gained—$7 an hour with $1 units.
Padding Your Progression
Let it be known that I despise progression systems in their true form. Yes, when I was younger I developed some systems, used them and made money, but with age comes wisdom. Straight progression systems are very risky and you lose a lot of value if played unmodified. A really large bankroll, and a strong stomach, is needed to properly play a progression system. Here is a tip I used to use when playing. If you must play every spin, this is not for you. By the way, some houses force you to play each spin so find one that’s not that way.
You see my probability chart above. I am going to add on three more losing spots.
Ten Times: .002% (1 in 500)
Eleven Times: .0008% (1 in 1250)
Twelve Times: .0004% (1 in 2500)
Modified Simple Progression System
Ok, here we go. The plan is to sit there and wait for an odd/even, red/black or 1-18/19-36 to pop up three times in a row. When that happens, you ride the other side. The end result is you increasing your odds tremendously—your first bet has a 92% chance of winning. Another result will be staying in the front part of your progression scale. To get wiped out, you will, in theory, need to play 2,500 spins—not the 333 as before. The downside is waiting for the three consecutives to pop up. However, since there are three sets to play, odds/evens, red/black and 1-18/19-36, the opportunities will come. It is a slower system, but 7.5 times more secure. If each cycle were to play out mathematically, you would lose 255 units and win 2500 units—a profit of 2245 units.