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Roulette : Progression Strategies
I have played my share of Roulette—was even a dealer in a casino. It never ceased to amaze me how many progression strategies for Roulette came out. In some of the local casinos, here in Las Vegas, you could find someone with a notepad playing Roulette any time of day. So, are these progression systems worthwhile? If not, can they be played effectively in a modified form? These are the issues I will tackle today.
Simple Progression System
A simple progression system doubles the last losing bet until a bet is won. They are almost always done on even pay bets such as odd or even, red or black and so forth. For example: 1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128 and so on. As you can see, by bet number eight, you are wagering 128 units to win one unit. To perform this simple 8-scale progression, you would need 255 units—and of course zero streaks of 9.
Let’s back up for one moment. In Roulette, there are 38 possible outcomes (1-36, 0 and 00). Whether you are betting odd/even or red/black, you have a probability of 47% (.474) that your bet will win. It would seem like this system is a sure fire way to get rich, but hold the phone. Have you ever flipped a coin? Did it always come out heads, tails, heads, tails and so on? Of course it didn’t. There is always a chance that you will lose multiple times in a row. So what’s the probability of losing a bet multiple times in progression?
One Time: 53%
Two Times: 28%
Three Times: 15%
Four Times: 8%
Five Times: 4%
Six Times: 2%
Seven Times: 1%
Eight Times: .006%
Nine Times: .003%
So what’s this mean? Most of the time you will be on the front of your progression scale, however if you where to play 100 spins, you would be at your seventh progression once, which means you would be wagering 64 units to win one. If you continue playing, by your 167th spin, you would have hit your 8th and final level—128 units to win one unit. Finally, after a long session, you play your 333rd spin and lose it all.
This is assuming that the numbers work out. However, you could very well walk up to play and 20 spins in—it’s over. For the numbers to hold true, you would have to play an enormous number of spins. If you had a large enough bankroll and played enough for mathematics to hold true, each “series” you would lose 255 units, but win 333 units—a profit of 78 units.
How long would 33 spins take in a casino? That’s a real good question. It all depends on the dealer. Some dealers (and houses) are trained to keep the game rolling along. You might have a spin every minute. Others take their time, and if busy, it could be 5 minutes between spins. Let’s compromise and assume a spin delay of two minutes. That equates to roughly eleven hours per cycle, which further equates to 7 units per hour gained—$7 an hour with $1 units.
Padding Your Progression
Let it be known that I despise progression systems in their true form. Yes, when I was younger I developed some systems, used them and made money, but with age comes wisdom. Straight progression systems are very risky and you lose a lot of value if played unmodified. A really large bankroll, and a strong stomach, is needed to properly play a progression system. Here is a tip I used to use when playing. If you must play every spin, this is not for you. By the way, some houses force you to play each spin so find one that’s not that way.
You see my probability chart above. I am going to add on three more losing spots.
Ten Times: .002% (1 in 500)
Eleven Times: .0008% (1 in 1250)
Twelve Times: .0004% (1 in 2500)
Modified Simple Progression System
Ok, here we go. The plan is to sit there and wait for an odd/even, red/black or 1-18/19-36 to pop up three times in a row. When that happens, you ride the other side. The end result is you increasing your odds tremendously—your first bet has a 92% chance of winning. Another result will be staying in the front part of your progression scale. To get wiped out, you will, in theory, need to play 2,500 spins—not the 333 as before. The downside is waiting for the three consecutives to pop up. However, since there are three sets to play, odds/evens, red/black and 1-18/19-36, the opportunities will come. It is a slower system, but 7.5 times more secure. If each cycle were to play out mathematically, you would lose 255 units and win 2500 units—a profit of 2245 units.
January 8th, 2006 at 8:27 pm
How about a progression on the First 12, second 12, or third 12.
I’ve worked this out and come out about even in three trys in
Las Vegas over the last 5 years. My last trip to Vegas was last
month and the max bet on most wheels were so low A progression system
would not work. Your comments please….Cat
January 8th, 2006 at 9:17 pm
Well, I’m not a big fan of true progression systems (1,2,4,8,16,32) from the onset. You lose value quickly and I have seen too many streaks in my lifetime.
Any system can seem to work in the short-term. The real test comes with extended play. As far as the 12’s go, I have seen one section not show up for an hour. That’s why I don’t like large progression scales. Some important factors to look at are the wheel, the dealer and the spin type. Some dealers spin the same way all the time and some vary it. Also, the wheel can tend to favor certain numbers because of mechanics.
If I use a progression system, it’s a limited one. Maybe I might go 1,2,3 and restart or 2, 4 and restart. In these cases, I would watch what’s not coming up and look to play it. For example, a pack of 12 has a 31.5% probability of coming out. If I see the first twelve not showing up for X spins, I might jump on it.
By watching and playing a missing component, you, in theory, increase your odds of winning. Just like if you flipped a coin three times and it was heads and then bet on tails for the next three times. The mathematics are on your side for those next three flips.
January 9th, 2006 at 8:38 pm
On the 12s I use a 1,1,1,2,4,8,16,24,32. If by the 9th spin I haven won a bet then it time to go see a show. The problem is I must find a wheel with a very low min bet and a high max bet. Binnions is the best I’ve foundin Vegas, $4.00 mim $5000.00 max
January 9th, 2006 at 9:04 pm
Yea, that’s the problem. However, most houses should be able to take 32x action if you bet the table minimum.
I have not been in old downtown for a bit (that’s where Horseshoe is), but you can also check out places like the Plaza, El Cortez and so forth. They typically have the lowest tables around (especially El Cortez–but it’s a dump).
Technically, a section of twelve has a 31.57% probability of showing up on any particular spin. Given a large enough sample size, the probability of striking out on all nine bets is 3.28%. So, it will happen–as will everything else theoretically possible.
January 12th, 2006 at 10:29 pm
Yes it can happen, I went 0 for 9 at Foxwoods 2 years ago, lucky it was a low max bet table so I didn’t get hurt too bad. I live on the east coast and plan a trip to Foxwoods in April. Hope to get back to Las Vegas in May 2007. Than you for the input….Cat
January 20th, 2006 at 12:35 pm
Roulette - try $1-2-3-4-6-9-13-20-30-45-67 (11 spins)
It works over 98% of the time after over 30 years playing.
Worse case, you lose $200 and it takes around 100 winning spins to
re-coop - work online at a European or French table ONLY (that takes
the 00 out of the game). Never stay at a table longer than 30
minutes. Start the progression over at $1 after very win. Each win
brings you +$2 since the last win. http://www.winonlinetoday.com/strategy.html
Good luck.
January 24th, 2006 at 1:14 pm
WS - I was in Vegas last weekend and by accident stumbled upon the modified progression strategy (roulette). It worked nearly flawlessly but got scary when I got greedy once. In two days of play I only got to 8 spins three times. From your memory as a dealer, is the mathmatical probability of hitting 9 spins truly what the math would say, i.e. .003? And 10 spins 1 in 500? Did you see many runs of say, 14, and 15, or 20? I want to be prepared and find my cap? Thanks!
January 27th, 2006 at 6:44 pm
I saw many streaks when I was dealing. However, it’s important to realize that I was in one area for many hours at a time (8+). If you are going to use any progression string, it’s important to limit playing time and move around. When I was dealing, I would see runs every single day pretty much. There was also a lot of times when a progression system would work just fine. It’s really a timing thing.
January 28th, 2006 at 7:21 pm
Please walk me thru the math and explane the percentages…Cat
January 28th, 2006 at 8:23 pm
I am not sure what exactly you want to know, so here’s something to start with. Let’s look at the math of red/black. We will be looking at the American version of Roulette. There are 38 possible numbers on the board. 18 of those numbers are red and 18 are black. Therefore, if you bet on either red or black, you have 18 possible winning numbers and 20 possible losing numbers, which is a winning probability of 47.3% (18 divided by 36).
Ok, keep the number .473 in mind. If you want to find the probability of two red or blacks being spun consecutively, you would take the probability of each event and multiple them against each other. So, .473 multiplied by .473, which is .223 or 22.3%. Therefore, the probability of two reds or blacks coming up consecutively is 22.3%.
While anything can happen in the short term, you will find that mathematical numbers tend to hold true long term.
May 27th, 2006 at 4:03 pm
Hi Wise bettor - How about a little help? Any list of online Casino’s that dont start at $1?
I found the aussie 1 cent ones. So I have 2 - Ant more?
David Allen
August 14th, 2007 at 10:15 am
I know that charles e hamshire, the pro.gambler has never used a progression system. He is one of the top roulette players and makes big bucks. He now has a website with free info. for roulette players. win3million.com Good site for professional only. I used to use progression,but dont anymore. Learn from real pros. Rusty.
August 22nd, 2007 at 11:07 pm
I do the fruit wheel at one dollar and 2 dollar (2nd bet) then i head to casino war for the 5,10,20,40,80,160 dollar bets (take back half on all ties) then i head to the blackjack for the 320 and on up at the high limit tables, never failed me yet 320,640,1280,2560,5120,10240,20480,40960,81020…been up to the 12th bet but made about 400k doing this