Preakness Stakes : Horse Pick

Later today the 131st running of the Preakness Stakes is going off at Pimlico Race Course and I can’t wait. Barbaro is challenging eight other horses for the second jewel in the Triple Crown. While it looks like Barbaro has the ability to beat out the other eight horses, there’s no money to be won by betting on him. The morning line had him at even money and he might go off at half money. So, if you think Barbaro is the show today, pocket your cash and watch this great race. I have looked at the field and found a horse that has the possibility to upset.

A lot of the focus is on the main three horses in this race: Barbaro, Brother Derek and GreatNortherSaint. All three of these horses will be bet down before the race most likely. Also, all three of these horses have been resting since the Kentucky Derby. Meanwhile the rest of the field has had a workout more recently. I think freshness is going to factor in here. You simply can not loaf around with a horse running him gently then expect him to turn out peak performances one after the other with little rest.

The horse I like to surprise and possibly upset is Bernardini. In the morning line Bernardini was 8-1 and many expect him to go up to 10-1. There’s heavy focus on the main three and many handicappers seem to have jumped on Like Now as well. Mike Watchmaker said Bernardini “has a lot of potential, and is bred to relish the distance”. The two main issues here are (1) stepping up in class—way up and (2) lack of history. Looking over the past performances, breeding and jockey leads me to believe that Bernardini has a real shot here.

What I am looking for in Bernardini (or any horse) is a realistic shot to contend and to get good odds. Money can’t be made betting on the favorites. Outside of the main three, which will be bet down, I think Bernardini gives the best value. Like Now is another horse to look at. However, I think this horse will tire down the stretch and I am not going to give him a boost just because he had one race where he surprised and beat out SweetNorthernSaint. The world is full of horses that have one or two miracle races. Distance will be the key here.

The Preakness Stakes is going to be exciting today. I can’t wait to see how Barbaro does on two weeks rest. I don’t see him winning the Triple Crown, but time will tell. As for me, I will be routing for Bernardini to upset. For the sport, I would not mind seeing a Barbaro-Bernardini fininsh. A Triple Crown chance will help draw even more attention to horse racing. We are just a hours away from the excitement at Pimlico Race Course.

Good luck today!