Blackjack Strategy : Breaking the Rules

If you’re at least a casual blackjack player, you are most likely familiar with “the book” and playing according to it. For those who don’t know, “the book” is basically a set of rules to play by. For example, if you where playing by “the book”, you would never split a pair of tens or double down with a total count of five. However, sometimes there’s a reason to deviate a little. If you always play by the book, you will be limiting yourself.

One rule that I never understood was staying on twelve when the dealer’s up card is a two. The thinking here is that the dealer has twelve and you should let him or her bust. However, I was a dealer and I made more hands out of twelve than you can imagine. Many times that twelve ended up being eighteen, nineteen, twenty and twenty-one. I submit to you that a hand of twelve, with the dealer’s up card being a two, should be hit. Only a card that equals ten can bust you, while many cards can help you or pull them away from the dealer, which can lead to a dealer bust.

Always double down on an eleven—that’s what we’re told. I don’t care for this rule at all. Sure, I double down a ton, but not always. One instance should bring you a moment of pause. If the dealer’s up card is a ten and you have seen many tens and faces go out, be careful. You could simply be setting yourself up for a double loss. Take a peak at these two scenarios.

Scenario One:

Hand: 11
Double Down: Yes
Card Received: 10
Result: 21 and a win
Bank: +2 units

Hand: 11
Double Down: Yes
Card Received: 5
Result: 16 and a loss
Bank: – 2 units

Final Bank: Even

Scenario Two:

Hand: 11
Double Down: No
Card Received: 10
Result: 21 and a win
Bank: +1

Hand: 11
Double Down: No
Card Received: 2 (13)
Action: Hit again and receive a 6.
Result: 19 and a push
Bank: push (0)

Final Bank: +1

As we can see, not doubling down was the best course of action. If you were playing the dealer head up and not one card equaling ten was out there, you would have a 33.3% probability of getting a 10 and a 41.1% probability of ending up with twenty or twenty-one. By playing the hand out normally, you not only can achieve the same or better results, but you can potentially save some hands that would have otherwise been lost. If you are able to estimate how many cards equaling ten are out there, your decision will be easier to make.

The next time someone tells you to play by the book, tell them that you are no longer sipping the baby’s bottle of blackjack strategy and have graduated to solid foods.